OHA increased CCO payments by an average 10.2% for 2026 — an additional $147 million, KTVZ reported. CCOs had a near break-even 2024, averaging just $129,000 in net operating income. Several CCOs had signaled they might exit without rate increases.

As Willamette Week documented, OHA initially proposed lower rates before coming back with the 10.2% offer.

But the increase collides with federal headwinds: $12B projected loss over the next decade. OHA is simultaneously cutting $200M in quality incentives and narrowing eligibility for behavioral health directed payments. Higher capitation rates simply become higher overhead if providers keep exiting.

Watch for: CCO Q1 2026 financials. If Congress reduces the FMAP for expansion populations, Oregon faces a budget hole forcing rate cuts in 2027 even as costs rise. The fundamental question: can Oregon's CCO model survive simultaneous cost, funding, and network pressures?